Analysis Of Current Status And Future Trends Of New Energy Vehicles And BMS

- Oct 28, 2019-

In the past, many people are asking us a question, how do you think about the future new energy vehicle market, and how to look at the new car power, so today we share what we think about the future new energy vehicle market.

My sharing is divided into three parts. The first part is the status quo and future trends of new energy vehicles. The second part is the current status and future trends of the BMS market. The third part is a brief introduction of our company. This year, the entire new energy vehicle market is not particularly good, especially in June and July. The growth rate is very low. Many people think that there will be opportunities for new energy vehicles in the future, especially if the new energy vehicles will continue to grow after the subsidies fall back. So we first throw our view - NE Research predicts that new energy vehicles will continue to grow at a high rate under multiple factors. In the past few years, we have been cautiously optimistic about this industry. On the contrary, when we are very pessimistic, we are more optimistic about this market. There are several reasons for this:

First, policy drivers. The key point is that the double-integration policy for new energy vehicles has been continued. After the amendment comes out, the points policy for 2021~2023 is 14%, 16%, and 18% respectively. We know that new energy vehicles are purely policy-driven and may become markets in the future. Policy dual drive market.

Second, foreign-funded enterprises, new forces, and real estate companies are entering the market to speed up product launches and accelerate market development. In the past few years, the joint venture has been in a wait-and-see state and hesitated, but now it is moving very fast and the competition will be fierce in the future.

Third, the cost of electric vehicles is still falling rapidly, especially as battery prices are falling rapidly and infrastructure is constantly improving.

This is our forecast for 2017-2025, and the current passenger car from January to July is 660,000. This year's situation is probably 120, 1.3 million units, but it is likely to grow by only 20%. In 2021, 2022, 2023, it will maintain a very fast growth trend. There will be many factors out there, so we will maintain a rapid growth trend in the long run.

This is our prediction of the structure distribution of new energy passenger cars. We have always been very conservative about PHEV. Many people say that PHEV is the best, long-life mileage, and electricity can be used. In the current direction, PHEV is only in Limiting cities have such advantages, and the cost is hard to fall. On the contrary, BEV dominates the market.

Regarding the policy section, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has just released the double-point management method for 2021-2023. We have seen that the points requirement for 2021~2023 is 14%, 16%, 18%, and it is very likely that we will continue to move down. There will be some changes in the amendments, and we are more optimistic about the future development of HEV and 48V.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to open a point transaction, which will further promote the production of new energy vehicles. In the past period, the price of new energy vehicles is very low. Many companies have produced A00-class electric vehicles for points. You can see the current statistics in 2018. The new energy points of mainstream auto companies are all OK. In the long run, we believe that there will be insufficient points in this industry. Many A00-class models are no longer in the market. This part of the market will become smaller and smaller. The points you can exchange will become lower and lower, and the market supply and demand relationship may occur. Great change. At present, we can know that mainstream car companies must do two things. One is to produce more energy-efficient cars. In addition, we must produce a certain proportion of new energy vehicles and get new energy points. In the long run, light production of energy-saving cars 48V, HEV models It is not enough to support the fuel point consumption and must go in the direction of PHEV and BEV.

The joint venture started to enter on a large scale, and the big reason was that the new energy points drove them to do such a thing. It is very likely that in the future, the new energy vehicle market will become the situation of the traditional gasoline vehicle market we are currently seeing. In the new energy vehicle market, it will be obvious that in 2014, it was all independent brands, Beiqi, BYD, and SAIC. But everyone can see that all the car companies will come in to grab this market in the future. The joint venture car companies and independent car companies are in the new energy vehicles. The market will compete positively, and who is the boss is currently unable to see clearly. Fortunately, independent enterprises have very strong first-mover advantages, as well as very strong technical reserves and integration capabilities. At present, we still believe that companies with independent research and development advantages will remain in the market in the long run, but the second and third line research and development strength Enterprises that don't invest enough will be eliminated quickly. We did the TOP10 main engine factory ranking in 2025. There is no way to make a too clear pre-judgment by 2025. This trend is like this. There must be a joint venture model entering the TOP10. Now no TOP10 is a joint venture. There will be some Enterprises are gradually being eliminated. SAIC Volkswagen, FAW Volkswagen, SAIC GM will definitely get up. This is our prejudgment of the market.

At present, Volkswagen is actively deploying pure electric, and the MEB platform life cycle target is 15 million units in 7 years. This is almost an impossible task and goal. Why do you still want to do this? I think that car companies must have their ideas in such a strategic plan. As a group like this, Volkswagen has made it clear that this target will be released, rather than being released, they realize that electric vehicles are the future trend. The Volkswagen European diesel car market has nowhere to go, so it is entirely betting on the pure electric vehicle market. The scale of 15 million such productions allows him to have a very large voice to negotiate with the parts suppliers. Once the model is on the market, it can have a very strong competitive advantage and can reduce costs.

Toyota Motorization speeds up and will launch 10 electric models from 2020. A few days ago, people talking with Mitsubishi, Toyota has a large part of the speed of electric car promotion because of the public's strategy. We know that Toyota and Volkswagen are the biggest car companies in the world, and Volkswagen's strategy is full of pressure on the BEV market, which leads to his competitors must follow the policy. Toyota did not think that BEV was a very good technical advantage, but he has been considering it and has not made a large-scale investment. Now he has started to accelerate the implementation of electric vehicles in the Chinese market and has done a lot of preparatory work. Therefore, we have seen that Toyota wants to cooperate with companies such as BYD or Ningde Times. For such a company, once such a strategic release is made, there will be more hesitation in the future. We can also see that Toyota is in the electric, PHEV, HEV, BEV. HEVs are already doing a lot of layouts. When looking for China's supply chain, there will be strong competition models.

BMW's electrification strategy will accelerate, and 25 new energy vehicles will be invested by 2023. We must not forget that the accumulation of foreign-funded enterprises in the entire electric vehicle field is far more than that of Chinese private enterprises. There is no such thing as cornering overtaking. In the past few years, everyone did not do well because everyone was hesitating. BMW did not see that this market could be realized. The price of gasoline and electric vehicles could be flattened. They were not optimistic about this. From the strategic level, we know that the BMW CEO has resigned, because the board level will feel that we have accumulated so early in such a long time, why it is so slow in the new energy field. They want to speed up the entire industry. This may be more strategic investment in 2025. This is what we see in foreign companies in the electrification market. At present, the electrification market has become a global enterprise competition, not just a single market competition. This is a representative foreign-funded enterprise.

Let’s take a look at Evergrande and sort out a few factories. For example, in Tianjin, Tianjin’s earliest is Guoneng, planning 50,000 places to be qualified, and Songjiang has to invest in a factory with a plan of 22 billion and 200,000 units. Guangzhou Nansha has 160 billion yuan and 1 million vehicles. Liaoning has an investment of 120 billion yuan. According to this investment, it is also an investment of 80-100 million units. The Guanghengda family has added up to 2 million in capacity planning. This is only a matter of planning. At this time, no one should believe that the Evergrande will produce 2 million new energy vehicles. Many of us have questioned the purpose of Evergrande in doing this for real estate, but we should think about another thing. For real estate developers, the real estate industry must continue to go down or not grow as high as before. The situation, so for them, doing new energy vehicles is a politically correct thing, but also a matter that must be done for corporate strategy. Even if such a large investment is not done in the actual 100%, there will be about 30% of the output will be completed. If it is 30% of 2 million units, it is 600,000 units. Enterprises like Evergrande want to make layouts, from the whole vehicle, to the national energy new energy, Königsig, the battery receiving card new energy, electric drive and Hofer made a joint venture company, collected Hubei Tate, charging network and State Grid joint venture, received more than 40% of the shares of Guanghui as a channel. It is very easy for such a company to really want to do something like this because it has money. It takes 20 billion to build a new car company, but this kind of enterprise investment is 100 billion yuan. It is completely crushed. If you have money, you can invest in technology. The key is whether the boss wants to build a car and wants to build a car. It can be done well, if you don't want to do it is another story.

This is what we just saw that the entire market will move forward very quickly, and the big change in gasoline vehicles is that the market business model will also change a lot. At present, we believe that the B end of the electric vehicle field is a big application field. And the scene, the future B-end field and C-end field will simultaneously become the largest market in the new energy field. Another big impact is that the application of the B-end has a very large impact on the supply chain. As you can see, the current mainstream car companies will basically locate the models in the network car and taxi market. We are also looking at the planning of car companies. They are currently targeting C-side users, and they will also locate the network car, taxi or shared travel. The channels are built simultaneously. All car companies have done the B-side channel accordingly. You can look at the ratio of production capacity. In fact, there is no particularly good way to distinguish the data very accurately. We took all the raw data and did not distinguish them very well. Some of them made purchases through private purchases, and they could not be counted. Some of them may be purchased for private use through unit form, and they are not very good at present.

We can see that each car company has made a shared travel layout, the first is BAIC. Because BAIC is the first company to produce and sell in the field of electric vehicles, it is also an early exploration of the multi-channel business model of electric vehicles. Although BAIC is a local state-owned enterprise, their group Xu’s acceptance of new things is still very fast. The first model travel, do time-share rental or daily rental models, all integrated into China travel.

This is BYD. BYD is in almost a few mainstream cities. For example, all taxis in Shenzhen are BYD. In Taiyuan, 8,000 taxis are all replaced, and market data is growing very fast. This depends on the relationship between various companies and the government. At the same time, we saw BYD and Didi set up a joint venture company to launch a new energy network. Because of the establishment of the joint venture company, a separate model will be developed for the B-end market. Because the scenes and application areas of the B-side travel are different, the C-end consumer models focus on the private driver, which is how comfortable the driver is. Traveling at the B-end market is a better experience for travellers. We also heard that we are currently doing different functions. The vehicle that travels basically runs 600,000 kilometers. This cruising range is very long. How to make better and precise control of BMS, and make the service life and control precision higher. This is a problem that needs to be considered in different application fields. If it is for the travel industry to weaken the brand attributes, I don't care what company is doing, but I have to make sure that it is cheap, because the models are 50-600,000 km, and the average private model is 100,000-200,000. The kilometer is scrapped.

Let's take a look at Geely. Geely did Cao Cao's trip. At the beginning, it was digesting electric cars. Later, I thought about whether to do PK for companies like Didi. Making a line is a state of groping for the company. From the companies like Uber and Didi, all the car companies have found that they want to be transformed. I can't be their foundry. I have to make a service provider, and the car companies want to make a service provider. How to develop in the end is not very sure, Cao Cao special car digested the main channel of Emgrand electric car, there are quite a lot in Shenzhen.

The Great Wall new energy vehicle is very slow. Last year, it started to push the Euler electric vehicle market, and then made a green travel service platform. In fact, in the current situation, it is still solving the problem of how to sell the models I produced, and digesting my production capacity. This is the current problem for all car companies to solve the travel. At present, we must see that it is very advantageous to use the electric car to run the market. It is still much cheaper than using oil.

In addition, the improvement of the entire infrastructure and key components is also very important. We found that battery prices fell faster than expected, and this price should be planned by the government. We understand that the current price is basically lower than this price. The current price given by the industry is very exaggerated. We suspect that some companies lose money to seize the market. The competition in the battery is very fierce. The electric vehicle market itself is very small. At present, it is the first place for enterprises to seize the mainstream customers. New energy vehicles have about 4 million vehicles and about 1.5 million effective charging piles. From this point of view, the current demand for new energy vehicles can be initially met. The biggest problem now is that there is a big problem in the installation of private charging piles. There is not enough parking space in the old community. There is no place to install charging piles. In addition, charging piles are used. The capacity of the capacitors is not enough, which will lead to tripping. The expansion will result in cost and cost. These problems have not been sorted out clearly. The new community is obliged to require 10% of the parking spaces to reserve charging piles. At present, it is not enough. We are worried that it is still a problem whether the underground garage is allowed to install charging piles after many fires.

This is the current situation of the new energy vehicle market that we just talked about. Although there are many problems at present, we still believe that the electric vehicle market will maintain rapid growth in the next few years. The biggest factor is policy-driven, and the second is the market and joint venture. Rapid entry of enterprises will lead to an increase in the overall market. I often say, what will happen to new energy vehicles? I have to look at how joint ventures can expand and publicize the market in the future.

Let's take another look at the BMS market. We don't need to talk about this part. The industry chain is very simple and few. Basically, the BMS upstream chip and materials are assembled into modules, and then go down to PACK and use the whole vehicle.

Everyone here has seen a similar picture. This is what has just been done recently. Many companies are no longer on the top, and there are new companies in it. The enterprise layout is in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, and the electric vehicle market is the largest in the Yangtze River Delta region.

I made a statistic. From 2014 to 1919, all the supporting enterprises kicked out the foreign-funded enterprises. This market is only about 5 years old. Many companies are no longer there. At the beginning, about 88, slowly go. More than 130 now, the highest point is more than 200. At present, there are three types of enterprises, and basically the BMS share in the battery industry has become very large. I made an analysis of market share. From 2014 to 2019, everyone looked at the battery BMS company. There is a very obvious city.