China's Pv Growth Rate May Slow Down In The Second Half Of The Year

- Aug 16, 2017-

China's energy storage network: during the first half of the year, with the rapid growth of China's photovoltaic market, enterprises have high capacity utilization and the market is in short supply.China pv industry association secretary-general Wang Bohua in photovoltaic industry "seminar on development of review and outlook the second half of the first half of 2017", points out that on the structure of photovoltaic market in China is gradually from the ground station to distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, lasted for 2016 years of the first half of the development situation, present a scale fast growth and productivity layout optimization, application, market characteristics, high level of industrialization.

The pv industry has been "exceeding expectations" and has a positive and strategic advantage. It has a strong international competitiveness and will maintain long-term.According to industry figures, the growth of China's pv domestic market will slow down in the second half of 2017, and international trade will remain under pressure.In the short term, "630" overdrawn the market for the second half of the year.


Distributed photovoltaic applications begin to diversify

Around the world, especially the "leader" plan to pull the market driven our pv began a new round of expansion, and are focusing on the efficient products field, in the first half of this trend to continue.According to China's photovoltaic industry association secretary-general Wang Bohua, in the first half of the photovoltaic industry scale continues to expand, costs continue to drop and technology progress, further improve the development environment, a distributed by various enterprises "favor", application of diversified began to emerge.In the first half of the year, the output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components reached 115,000 tons, 36GW, 32GW and 34GW respectively, respectively, up 21.1%, 20%, 28% and 25.9% respectively.

In the first half of the year, China's new pv capacity installed capacity reached more than 23GW, a year-on-year growth of 9%, creating a new high in the same period, and photovoltaic power generation has exceeded the 100GW mark for the first time.Among them, the distributed pv added more than 7 gw, a year-on-year increase of nearly three times.In addition, distributed pv showed a faster rate of development, accounting for about 30% of the total, up 20 percentage points from the same period last year.New energy department, deputy director of the national energy administration XingYiTeng believes that in the first half of the photovoltaic installations hit a record high, on the one hand, influenced by the price policy, investment enterprises want higher feed-in tariff;On the other hand, the growth of power demand and the decline of light yield have contributed to the decline. The issue of renewable energy consumption is even written into the government work report.

In the first half of the year, China's central and eastern regions continued to lead the development of the national photovoltaic industry. The total installed capacity of east China and central China accounted for more than 50% of the total installed capacity in China.At the same time, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation increased significantly, with the year-on-year growth rate reaching 8%, and the photovoltaic phenomenon improved, and the rejection rate dropped to 7%.Xing yi-teng analysis, China's photovoltaic power generation of the improvement of the situation is mainly attributable to three factors.First, China's overall power supply and demand situation in the first half of the year has been better, which has provided a larger space for the consumption of electricity.Second, the state attaches great importance to new energy and energy, and has adopted a number of policies to abandon the phenomenon of wind and light.Third, the thermal power plant through the technological transformation, enhanced the thermal power of the flexibility of the transformation capacity, increased the thermal power peak and frequency modulation, and provided more development space for photovoltaic power generation.

The economic efficiency of pv shows differentiation trend

Due to the photovoltaic industry was plagued with negative misunderstandings, such as the expenses, such as high energy consumption, high pollution has always been a stumbling block which restricts the healthy development of photovoltaic industry, photovoltaic industry must expand global capacity layout, optimize the layout of domestic capacity.All the way in the "area" strategy to guide and protect the situation under the influence of international trade, in the first half of our pv enterprises overseas layout is accelerating, the acceleration of "going out", capacity expansion remains robust, the production layout is reasonable, but our pv trade protection.With the establishment of overseas factories, components export market by Europe and the United States, mature market turned to emerging markets, including India, Brazil, Pakistan, Mexico, etc., silicon main export market from China Taiwan is to move of Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and other southeast Asia market.

On April 1, Turkey decided to impose a five-year anti-dumping duty on its photovoltaic module products.On April 17, the photovoltaic cells and components manufacturers Suniva to court to file for bankruptcy protection in the United States, then based on the 1974 trade law article 201, brought an action against the us international trade commission, the requirement for all imports to the United States of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and components has launched the global safeguard investigation.If the 201 clause passes and takes concrete measures, the United States will block the overseas production capacity of the companies, including those from China's overseas factories, as well as other countries and even domestic companies.

In the first half of the year, China's photovoltaic economy showed a trend of differentiation.One is the industrial chain dimension.From the point of view of industrial chain, the profitability of pv is decreasing from the top downwards, the silicon is the strongest, and the component part is weaker.In terms of specific products, the same trend of differentiation, such as monocrystalline silicon chips, high-efficiency battery chips, efficient components, and other market demands, has been significantly improved.The second is the time dimension.From the quarter in the first quarter of the market is slack season, the component price slightly low, the majority of poor profitability of enterprises, in the second quarter of the market demand, the price also slightly warmer, enterprise profitability begins to ascend.The third is the enterprise dimension.From the perspective of specific enterprises, more than 20 percent of enterprises still lose money. The main reason for the losses is that the capacity utilization is insufficient, the previous financial burden is heavier, and the industrial development is differentiated.

Photovoltaic cell production will reach a record high

According to wang, the output of pv modules in China has fallen nearly 25% in the last two years and will continue to decline in the future.Photovoltaic (pv) power generation has been preliminary economical, multiple places in the world has been less than traditional power costs, achieve parity on the Internet, so as soon as possible to reduce the engineering cost is the key to promote our pv parity on the Internet.In the long term, the development potential of the global photovoltaic market is huge, and the photovoltaic industry in China is fully equipped, which already has strong international competitiveness and will continue to be maintained.The approval of the Paris agreement laid a solid foundation for the development of the global photovoltaic market.The diversification and diversification of photovoltaic application provide wide application space for the development of photovoltaic market;The development of multi-energy complementary and micro grid provides more space for photovoltaic power.Global demand has become decentralized and emerging markets have begun to scale up. The One Belt And One Road international cooperation strategy promotes the development of emerging markets.At the low price of the global pv market, China's photovoltaic industry, with its experience, organizational experience, management experience and cost performance, still has a strong competitive edge.

In the short term, the future of China's northwest regions is severely curable and may extend to north or central China.The pv subsidy gap has no effective resolution mechanism in the short term, and the arrears will be more serious.In the second half of the year, the United States has launched a 201 investigation, and it is expected that it will be blocked by the photovoltaic industry.

Wang Bohua, said the second half of the domestic photovoltaic market in China will slow its growth, international trade is still under pressure, technology will be further intensified competition, industrial upgrading will accelerate, photovoltaic cell production in China in 2017 is expected to more than 60 gigawatts (gw), reached a record high.At the same time, the development of China's photovoltaic industry faces many serious challenges, such as slowing domestic market, international trade barriers and increasing domestic production capacity.Moreover, in 2017, domestic installer will complete the "13th five-year" photovoltaic power generation target, and the domestic market growth rate will be down in the next three years. Therefore, we should not be blindly optimistic.