China's energy storage network: at present, clean energy is developing far more rapidly than expected.Not only does this have a huge impact on the development of solar and wind energy, but also the "black gold" coal has begun to fade away.
The new energy outlook 2017 report, released by bloomberg new energy finance (BNEF), extends its forecast for renewable energy to 2040.The report says the cost of wind and solar energy is falling rapidly and the transition to clean energy is more significant than expected."The power sector is becoming more clean," says lead author Seb Henbest. "batteries, including those used in electric cars, are playing a growing role in the balance of supply and demand."
In parts of the United States and Europe, solar energy is more competitive than coal and natural gas.Solar prices in China, India, Brazil and Mexico are expected to be even cheaper than fossil fuels by 2021.
Between now and 2040, the world will invest $10.2 trillion in new power generation technologies, with renewable energy accounting for three-quarters of the total.Wind and solar power will account for 48% of the world's electricity, up from 12% today.The price of batteries is greatly reduced, mainly used in residential area and energy storage technology.The use of electric vehicles is more widespread, helping to balance intermittent generation of electricity from wind and solar power.
The cost of solar energy has fallen by 75% over the past decade, and it will fall by 66% over the next 25 years.The new energy forecast even takes into account the current expiration of renewable energy subsidies.
The low cost of solar energy has already hit coal in many markets, and the impact will only accelerate.By 2040, coal consumption in Europe will fall by 87 per cent, us consumption by 45 per cent and the global total by about 15 per cent.BNEF forecasts that 369 gigawatts of coal will be consumed by 2040.
The greening of the grid means that global greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2026 and are starting to decline.But it has not yet reached the 2c requirement for warming under the Paris agreement.To achieve this, global investment in clean energy will have to rise by $5.3 trillion.
It is hard to exaggerate the speed of this energy conversion, but they may be too conservative.Whatever the government's efforts to do for the industry, the prospects for coal are grim.
Global coal production fell to a record low in 2016, falling by more than 6 per cent and consumption by 1.7 per cent.This is not just the conclusion of analysts and environmental companies, even the companies that produce fossil fuels are very bullish on clean energy.Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP, said: "the age of coal is over.The core of this shift is structural and long-term.
Another key question is what role gas will play in the growing energy mix.A lot of big energy companies have realised that, the government in the process of purifying power part, gas will occupy larger share of the market, so they began to look at the future bets in natural gas, that natural gas may be coming decades the main sources of energy.
BNEF believes that natural gas is still the leading role in the United States, but in other parts of the world, natural gas may be the best supporting actor.In the long run, natural gas will peak in renewable energy and provide system stability, not a substitute for coal.