The Battery Industry Chain Affected by the Epidemic will Accelerate the Reshuffle
A sudden new outbreak of COVID-19 has disrupted the development expectations of multiple industries in the first quarter, and the original development momentum of the new energy vehicle and power battery industry has not been spared. Recently, the first quarter of this year, new energy vehicle production and sales, power battery installed capacity data have been released, production and sales, installed capacity fell "no surprises", and the performance of various companies in the industrial chain has also "changed face."
A few days ago, the China Automobile Association released data showing that in the first quarter of this year, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed at 105,000 and 114,000, respectively, down 60.2% and 56.4% year-on-year. According to data from the Power Battery Application Branch, the installed capacity of power batteries for new energy vehicles in China in the first quarter of this year was 5.68GWh, a decrease of 53.84% from 12.31GWh in the same period of 2019.
Delays in resumption of work, apparent decline in orders, obstructed logistics and transportation, and poor supply chain connection ... The new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused various difficulties for the company's production and operation, and ultimately led to a decline in overall corporate profits. Recently, many listed companies in the power battery industry chain have successively released first-quarter performance reports. Most companies have experienced a decline in performance, and some companies have even suffered huge losses. Even if some companies still maintain positive growth, they are far from expectations.
According to China Battery, a total of 49 battery manufacturers have power battery supporting new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year, which is a further decrease from 53 in the same period last year. It is worth noting that of the 49 companies in the first quarter of this year, only 8 of them had a year-on-year increase in installed capacity; of the top 10 in installed capacity, only LG Chem and Tafel had a year-on-year increase, and the rest had fallen sharply.
In the view of the editor, the impact of the "black swan" of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has far exceeded people's expectations. The situation in the first quarter of this year is very special and cannot be analyzed according to the normal situation. However, the impact of the epidemic on the industry is also very obvious: it will accelerate industry reshuffle.
On the one hand, due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, it is difficult to make a big improvement in the downstream automotive market demand in the short term, which will inhibit the demand for power batteries. Whether the installed capacity of power batteries will increase this year is still unknown. For some small and medium-sized battery companies, If there are insufficient or too few long-term orders, the operating pressure will increase.
On the other hand, the new crown epidemic has led to a significant reduction in corporate revenue, and corporate operating costs will increase in disguise. Companies with greater financial pressure may face the risk of market adjustments.
How big is the impact of the epidemic on enterprises? We can also get a general understanding through the financial reports of listed companies. Recently, the battery industry chain has successively released the first quarter financial report, and the net profit has fallen into the main tone.
Battery company: CATL is still the most profitable
Recently, CATL stated that in the first quarter of 2020, due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the market, the installed capacity of new energy vehicles has dropped significantly. It is reported that the installed capacity of CATL power batteries in the first quarter of this year was 2.80GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 46.92%. Affected by the decline in sales revenue of power batteries in the first quarter, the company's first quarter net profit is expected to be between 733 million and 838 million yuan, down 20% -30% year-on-year. Nevertheless, the CATL is still the most profitable battery manufacturer.
Due to the low operating rate in the first quarter, the delay in raw material procurement, transportation of finished products, and the company ’s higher expenditure on prevention and control of epidemics and resumption of recruitment, Xinwanda expects a loss of 107 million to 102 million in the first quarter, while the company ’s net profit in the same period last year The profit was 134 million yuan. It is worth noting that Xinwanda's installed capacity of power batteries achieved positive growth in the first quarter. Power battery application chapter data shows that the installed capacity of Xinwanda's power battery reached 23.15MWh in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 136.56% over the same period last year.
Among the battery production listed companies, the net profit in the first quarter did not decline, but increased, and currently only Yiwei lithium energy. According to Yiwei Lithium, the company's first-quarter net profit is expected to be between 240 million and 260 million yuan, an increase of 20% -30% year-on-year. It is reported that during the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, Yiwei Lithium Energy Huizhou Base has resumed good progress in production and resumption of production. Various work in production and sales has been progressing in an orderly manner, and new products have brought substantial growth in sales and profits. However, the company's Jingmen base was suspended for more than 40 days, which also affected the company's overall performance expectations.
Penghui Energy expects net profit in the first quarter of this year to be in the range of 18.5 million to 26 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43% -59%. The reason for the decrease is mainly due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. Due to increased expenditure.
Upstream resources: Cobalt and lithium
In terms of lithium resources, the net profit of the two domestic giants also fell sharply in the first quarter. Among them, Ganfeng Lithium expects that the company will achieve a net profit of 7 million yuan to 10 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, compared with 253 million yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 96-97%; Tianqi Lithium Company estimates that the company will The loss was 450 million yuan to 510 million yuan, while the company's profit was 111 million yuan in the same period last year.
The two lithium resource giants did not have a good life in the first quarter, and the reasons were similar. In addition to the main impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, in terms of "little difference", the price of financial assets held by Ganfeng Lithium fell, resulting in fairness in this period. The value change causes losses and affects the company's profits; the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar of Tianqi Lithium has dropped significantly, resulting in a substantial increase in the exchange loss of financial expenses in the current period compared with the same period last year.
Another battery resource giant, Huayou Cobalt, was relatively comfortable. As the price of cobalt products stabilized relatively, the gross profit margin of cobalt products began to rise. Huayou Cobalt Industry expects net profit in the first quarter of 2020 to be 184 million yuan, an increase of 1385.10% year-on-year.
Battery materials: Decline is still the main tone
The impact of the new coronary pneumonia in the first quarter mainly hit the market at home, and foreign production is still going on normally. Xinzhoubang said that due to the increase in the company's international customer orders for lithium battery chemicals in the first quarter and the sales of fluorinated pharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediate products and environmentally friendly fluorinated surfactants in the domestic and overseas markets of organic fluorochemicals for anti-epidemic needs Net profit for the first quarter is estimated to be RMB 86.928 million to RMB 99.346 million, an increase of 40% -60% over the same period of the previous year.
In terms of cathode materials, companies such as Dangsheng Technology and Xiangtan Electrochemical Co., Ltd. said that due to the impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, lithium battery cathode materials business sales and revenues have declined, leading to lower profits. Among them, Dangsheng Technology expects net profit to decline by 53.19%-45.39% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, with a net profit in the range of 30 million-35 million yuan; 10,000 yuan-6.5 million yuan.
In terms of diaphragms, both Xingyuan Materials and Enjie said that due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream customer demand has decreased, sales have not reached expectations, and net profit will fall sharply. Among them, Xingyuan Material expects net profit in the first quarter of this year to fall by 80.31% -67.19% year-on-year, within the range of 15 million yuan to 25 million yuan; Enjie shares are expected to decline by 38.00% -25.00% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, at 1.32 100 million yuan-160 million yuan.
Lithium battery equipment: Yinghe Technology's mask machine business forms new volume
In terms of lithium battery equipment, Yinghe Technology signed a new lithium battery order of more than 1 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year. In addition, it actively responded to the government ’s call to help anti-epidemic prevention and control work. It launched a mask mask automatic production line and mask OEM business to form an increase in business. The company expects In the first quarter, the net profit was 150-170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.12% -140.41%.
According to Pioneer Intelligence, the company continued its high-intensity R & D investment since last year in the first quarter of this year, and the proportion of R & D expenses in total operating income increased significantly over the same period of the previous year. In the first quarter, new orders for single gross margins were newly signed, resulting in gross margins. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the company expects that the net profit in the first quarter will fall by 35% -55% year-on-year, and the profit will be in the range of 87.253 million yuan to 126.326 million yuan.
With the good results achieved in the prevention and control of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in China, production resumption in various industries is gradually recovering. The data in March showed that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 50,000 and 53,000 in the month, up 381.6% and 301.3% respectively from the previous month. In terms of power batteries, the installed capacity of power batteries reached 2.77GWh in the month, a 363.8% increase from the previous month. The new energy vehicle and power battery industries are gradually recovering. It is expected that the entire industry chain will gradually return to normal and related data will gradually return to normal levels.