The Market For Pure Electric Vehicles Is Expected To Pick Up In 2020

- Aug 10, 2017-

China's new energy automobile market has become the world's largest market, behind its rapid growth, on the one hand is the guiding role of national policy, on the other hand is the change of the auto industry to promote the development of new energy vehicles.

However, China's new energy vehicles in the core technology sector still need to be upgraded and are still in incubation period."Rapid development should take the market as the leading, conventional cars in 2020 is expected to show downward trend, pure electric car market will speed up, after 2030 fuel cell vehicles will also formed a certain scale, may be purely internal combustion engine car was done not have, at least, is a hybrid."National new energy automotive technology innovation engineering team Wang Binggang in 2017 Chinese clean energy vehicles on peak BBS, said the 2016 global sales of more than ten thousand new energy vehicles 17 enterprises, China accounted for nine.

"In the new energy market, China's new energy market is now clearly driven by policy, with sales mainly concentrated in restricted cities.2020 years later, the market will enter a state of relatively free competition, especially pure electric vehicles will be from the current product shape transformation models based on the traditional platform for special platform based on pure electric exclusive products and the development of new energy shift."Changan vice President li wei to the media, including the first finance and economics, said, in 2020 China's new energy passenger car sales or will reach 1.4 million, 2025 new energy passenger car sales or will reach 4.5 million units.

Under the subsidy policy, many domestic carmakers, such as baic and byd, have developed rapidly and gained a foothold in new energy vehicles.For example, baic is number one in pure electric vehicles, while byd is ahead of other carmakers in hybrid cars.In addition, fuel consumption restrictions have forced foreign automakers to start accelerating their deployment of new energy vehicles.

On 13 June this year, the legislative affairs office of the state council issued "the average fuel consumption and new energy automobile passenger car enterprises integrating parallel management regulations (draft)", put forward the enterprise average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicles (NEV) "parallel" management mechanism, the system of double integral, for traditional Chinese passenger car annual energy production or imports more than 50000 vehicles of passenger car enterprises, setting new energy automobile integral ratio requirements.

In the year 2018 to 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles in passenger car companies will be 8%, 10% and 12% respectively.If the integral fails to meet the standard and fails to compensate for the negative integral, the car company will face the penalty of being suspended from filing the catalogue and stopping the production or import of some traditional car models.At present, a lot of foreign car companies have announced plans for the development of new energy vehicles, such as Volvo group recently announced that the company will establish joint venture with geely holding group technology, the joint venture will be hand in hand to develop new energy electric vehicle technology.Not long ago, Daimler and baic also announced strategic partnerships in new energy vehicles, and joint ventures between Volkswagen and jianghuai have been formally approved.

In wang's view, the development of hybrid vehicles is a big step in reducing fuel consumption."Countries made the goal of the average fuel consumption, there is double integral method, it is to promote enterprise must to reduce fuel consumption, and reduce the fuel consumption of the most effective measure is to develop a hybrid, we forecast that by 2030 25% of the car is a hybrid, I think this proportion will be more."

On the other hand, the transformation of automobile industry has promoted the development of new energy vehicles."New energy vehicles relative to conventional cars have a greater demand such as intelligence, Internet, and intelligent in new energy, the impact of the tide of the Internet, various cross-border companies poured into the auto industry, aimed at intelligent electric cars, impact the traditional car companies."Li wei told media including first finance that sharing car development also promoted the development of new energy vehicles.According to the ministry of transport statistics, at present the national 6301 car rental business, lease about 200000 vehicles, car rental company more than 40 time-sharing, the total number of more than 40000 vehicles, including new energy vehicles accounted for more than 95%.

"In fact, sharing cars is a business model tailored to the development of new energy vehicles.The first is the maturity of the supply side, which has introduced many new energy models since last year.The second is that it can lower the cost and make the whole point of the lease a clear account of the operation.The initial estimate is that the cost of a fuel car is almost four times that of a new energy vehicle.PonyCar founder Lin zhongjie told the first financial reporter.

However, the development of China's new energy vehicles in the core technologies such as batteries, motors and electronic control (trielectricity) still needs to be promoted.As the policy subsidy declines, the cost reduction is a big challenge for the domestic new energy vehicle enterprises.China's new energy vehicles must cut costs if they want to get ahead in the market.At present the cost of new energy vehicles is higher than traditional car a lot, in addition to direct battery costs, supply chain cost, access to products, standard update, the change of the subsidy way, also repeatedly raised the already much higher than traditional car costs.

But even if the subsidy goes down, the price of new energy vehicles will not rise sharply.The perspective of "new energy vehicles cost subsidy, vehicle costs constitute a new department of energy cost proportion is as high as 60%, but the subsidy policy of rapid TuiPo far faster than the battery system of authors, this brings to the enterprise the management pressure.In particular, the potential for a post-2020 period of unsubsidized era would pose a bigger challenge to the fall of the new energy system.Even so, the price of new energy vehicles will remain unchanged, even without subsidies, because of the policy market's growing consumer inertia that will last until 2020.We can't tell consumers that because the state is not subsidizing, our prices are going up.""Li said.