The Power Battery Market Will Set Off a Wave of LiFePO4 Battery Again
On March 29, BYD released a new generation of lithium iron phosphate battery "blade battery". He Long, vice president of BYD Group and chairman of Verde Battery, revealed: "Almost all car brands are discussing with BYD a cooperation plan based on the technology of" blade battery "."
More industry insiders said that "blade battery" is BYD's knife and will re-cut the market pattern of power batteries.
Why NMC lithium batteries have become mainstream in the market
Before the release of BYD blade batteries, NCM lithium batteries were the mainstream choice in the power battery market. Both the installed capacity and the market share are expanding year by year.
Relevant information shows that in 2016, the installed capacity of NCM lithium batteries was 6.3GWh, and the market share was 22.6%; by 2019, the installed capacity of NCM lithium batteries reached 38.5GWh, and the market share also climbed to 61.7 %. At the same time, the market share of lithium iron phosphate gradually declined year by year. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate was 20.3GWh in 2016, with a market share of 72.7%; the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate was 20GWh in 2019, and market demand The amount did not change much, but the market share fell to 32%.
The key factor that causes the market share of NCM lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate to be reversed is that government subsidies have been trending towards high-endurance and high-energy-density vehicles in the past year.
According to the new energy vehicle subsidy standard, in 2017, electric vehicles with a cruising range of more than 100 kilometers can enjoy state subsidies; in 2018, electric vehicles with a cruising range of more than 150 kilometers can enjoy state subsidies; entering 2019, the threshold for enjoying state subsidies Raise to 250 kilometers.
At the same time, the space reserved for batteries in passenger cars is ultimately limited. The more batteries loaded and the higher the energy density, the more likely it is to meet government subsidy standards. In terms of energy density, the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate battery cell is usually between 90-120Wh / kg, and the energy density of the NCM lithium battery cell can reach about 200Wh / kg, which shows that the energy density advantage of the NCM lithium battery is more obvious . At the same time, the tap density of the lithium iron phosphate battery is only 0.7-1. 4g / cm3, which is much lower than the 2.2-2. 8g / cm3 of the NCM material, resulting in a significant volume specific energy density.
The market direction is wrong?
However, BYD does not recognize NCM batteries as the mainstream development direction of the market. At the press conference of BYD's "blade battery", Wang Chuanfu said: "I believe that 'blade battery' will force the entire new energy vehicle industry to make changes and allow the industry to enter the fast lane of healthy development."
Although NCM batteries have advantages such as high energy density, they are difficult to compare with lithium iron phosphate batteries in terms of cost performance and safety.
In terms of cost performance, the core advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries lies in the low price. Since lithium iron phosphate cathode materials do not contain rare metals such as cobalt, the cost advantage is obvious compared to NCM materials. Based on the market situation at the end of 2019, lithium iron phosphate cathodes The price of materials is only 43,000 yuan / ton, while the price of Sanyuan 523 cathode is 138,000 yuan / ton, and the price of Sanyuan 811 cathode is higher than 180,000.
From 2015 to 2018, the price of cobalt has tripled, and the highest price once reached 80,000 US dollars / ton, which is the most expensive material in NCM lithium batteries. The European Union Joint Research Center (JRC) report pointed out that the demand gap in 2030 is expected to exceed 64,000 tons.
Under the experimental conditions, after 5000 cycles of the lithium iron phosphate battery, the remaining capacity is 84%, and after 3,900 cycles of the NCM lithium battery, the remaining capacity is only 66%. In contrast, the cycle life of the lithium iron phosphate battery is Far larger than the NCM lithium battery.
In terms of safety, the decomposition temperature of the anode material of the NCM lithium battery is about 200 ° C, and the decomposition temperature of the cathode material of the lithium iron phosphate battery is about 700 ° C. The short-circuited lithium iron phosphate battery cell will basically not catch fire. This is not the case with NCM lithium batteries.
BYD believes that safety is the core factor of power batteries. Wang Chuanfu said: "The biggest feature of the blade battery is safety, which will lead the global power battery technology route back to the right path." The word "spontaneous combustion" is completely erased from the dictionary of new energy vehicles. "
In the acupuncture experiment of three batteries published by BYD, under the same test conditions, the NCM lithium battery experienced a sudden temperature change at the moment of acupuncture, the surface temperature quickly exceeded 500 ℃, and extreme thermal runaway occurred- Vigorous burning phenomenon; traditional block lithium iron phosphate battery has no open flame and smoke after being punctured, and the surface temperature reaches 200 ℃ ~ 400 ℃; "blade battery" has no open flame and smoke after penetration, and the surface temperature of the battery Only about 30 ℃ -60 ℃.