What Is The Future Of New Energy Vehicles?

- Dec 10, 2019-

In 2019, some people use "a cold winter" and some people use "a turning point" to describe the trend of the new energy automobile industry. On March 26, the "Notice on Further Improving the Application of Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the four central ministries and commissions is like injecting a "clear agent" into the rapidly developing new energy vehicle industry.

The subsidy quota for pure electric passenger cars has been reduced by half compared to 2018, and the subsidy that is almost "cliff-like" has declined, exceeding market expectations, and sales of new energy vehicles have fallen. According to the China Automobile Industry Association, in September 2019, 80,000 new energy vehicle sales were completed, a decrease of 34.2% over the same period last year.

At present, the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles is still high, the driving mileage is not satisfactory, charging is not convenient, battery failures occur from time to time, price anxiety, mileage anxiety, and safety anxiety are still real problems that plague consumers. These shortcomings are not resolved. Even if there are concepts such as environmental protection, energy saving, and high technology, it is difficult to really popularize new energy vehicles.

In fact, the development of the new energy automobile industry has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven. In addition to reducing the direct subsidy, the adjustment of the subsidy policy has also raised the technical threshold for obtaining subsidies. What is the significance of this? Faced with fierce and brutal technology and market competition, how should car companies choose? How to break through the most critical technical bottlenecks currently facing? Standing at the crossroads of industrial development, "China Economic Lecture Hall" invited heavyweight guest Ouyang Minggao to in-depth interpretation of "subsidy subsidence, where is the future of new energy vehicles?" 》

The choice of electric vehicles as a breakthrough in the industrialization of new energy vehicles has driven the all-round development of various types of new energy vehicles. This choice was actually made by the Chinese government ten years ago. From 2009 to 2018, the main body of new energy vehicles is pure electric vehicles. Its promotion volume has ranged from 0 to 1.26 million, and our holdings have also increased from several thousand to 2.6 million in 2018. The specific energy of China's lithium-ion batteries has increased from 100 Wh / kg to 300 Wh / kg, and the cost has dropped from 5 yuan per watt hour to 0.8 yuan per watt hour.

China has established the largest lithium-ion battery industry chain in the world. Seven of the world's top ten battery suppliers are in China, including first and third place. These facts prove that our development is fruitful. This is the first time that China has successfully promoted high-tech consumer goods on a large scale in the world, accounting for more than 53% of the world's total. Around 2016, the world has basically turned to this direction, including the three major automotive companies in Germany, including the United States General Electric Company, and now several companies in Japan have begun to transition in this direction, which means that it has formed The trend from Chinese selection to global selection.

Why should China choose new energy vehicles? We first need to know, what is a new energy vehicle?

The development of new energy vehicles is imperative

1F What is a new energy vehicle?

What is a new energy vehicle? Or what is an electric car? These two concepts are not exactly the same. There are three types of electric vehicles.

The first is the hybrid electric vehicle we often say. This electric car was in existence in 1900, but the modern hybrid car actually arrived when the Toyota Prius was introduced to the market in 1997. Fuel vehicles are powered by an internal combustion engine, but the efficiency of the internal combustion engine power in a fuel vehicle cannot always be operated at an optimal efficiency, because our vehicle speed is high and low, and the load is large and small. Our internal combustion engine It is also connected to the car, so it will be affected, such as idling, low speed, etc., or very high speeds are not good. Hybrid power is to optimize the operating point of the internal combustion engine by means of motors and batteries. If the internal combustion engine is in the high efficiency area, we will let it directly drive the car; if it is in the low efficiency area, we will let it disconnect the mechanical drive and drive the generator to generate electricity Then the electric motor is driven by the electric motor, and the car is driven by the electric motor, which improves the efficiency again. This is the hybrid power.

Second, most of the new energy vehicles we drive today are pure electric vehicles. In fact, pure electric vehicles appeared earlier, in 1834. At the beginning of pure electric vehicles, it was a lead-acid battery. The lead-acid battery had a low driving range and heavy weight. Later, we developed pure electric vehicles with nickel-metal hydride batteries, but still could not meet the requirements. Lithium-ion batteries were invented in 1992, and in 2007 and 2008, pure electric vehicles with lithium-ion batteries first appeared on the market, which really entered the market.

The third type of electric vehicle is a fuel cell electric vehicle. Ballard first produced a 90 kW fuel cell engine in the 1990s. It took many more years, and by 2015, the fuel cell car launched by Toyota really became a commodity.

These are our three types of electric vehicles and three types of power systems. They have one feature in common: batteries, motors, and electronic controls. No matter what kind of car you need these three things. Hybrid power is also battery, motor, and electronic control. Generally, the electricity of the hybrid is generated by gasoline, or when it is automatically fed back, the car takes the electric motor and turns it into a generator to store it in the battery. But if this battery is relatively large, we can also get electricity from the grid. We call this a hybrid that can be charged.

The Chinese government stipulates that electric vehicles with a higher degree of electrification are called new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles include hybrid, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles that can be charged externally.

2F Why should we develop new energy vehicles?

Why should China choose new energy vehicles? There are three reasons:

The first reason is our oil security problem. Let me give you some data. In 2017, China ’s oil consumption was 600 million tons, half of which was the consumption of gasoline and diesel for our cars. How many cars will we have in 2017? 215 million cars. In the first half of 2019, we have reached 250 million vehicles. It is estimated that by the end of this year, we will definitely exceed 260 million vehicles in the United States. There are more and more cars, and the fuel consumption is getting bigger, but where does this oil come from? 70% of this is imported, and this is our energy security problem.

The second problem is the pollution of our city, especially the low-altitude pollution in the center of the city. For example, more than 20% of fine particles are brought by cars. For another example, nitrogen oxides, we are more than 50%, and more than 40% of volatile organic compounds are brought by cars, this is the data of Beijing.

The third reason is the upgrading of China's auto industry. After many years of development, China's automobile industry is now a pillar industry of the national economy. It has ranked first in the world for ten consecutive years and is far ahead. It now makes about 30% of the global automobile production. But we are a big car country, not a big car country. Therefore, when the General Secretary inspected SAIC in 2014, he emphasized that the development of new energy vehicles is the only way for China to move from a big automobile country to a strong automobile country.

3F Pure Electric——Breakthrough of New Energy Vehicle Industry

Beijing defines new energy vehicles as pure electric vehicles. Why is this? Why do we pick out pure electric vehicles as a breakthrough for the development of new energy vehicle industrialization? What is the reason?

We made this choice at that time in order to seize the huge opportunity of the new generation of lithium-ion batteries used in automobiles. The use of lithium-ion batteries in cars happened in 2008 and 2009. In the past ten years, lithium-ion batteries have indeed achieved a revolution in the field of storage batteries for a century. We believe that we need to strengthen China's characteristics and advantages in the field of electrified transportation. What are the characteristics and advantages of electrification in China's transportation system? Everyone knows that China's transportation system is different from others. Our geographic structure is different from Europe, the United States, and Japan. I call our traffic system a "point-line-surface model".

The so-called "dot" is a big city or big city group. For example, Beijing and Tianjin are "points"; but if it is between Beijing and Shanghai, this is the "line"; and our vast small and medium-sized cities and rural areas, I call it "face".

What are the characteristics of the "point-line-surface model" of transportation? We are on the "point" of electrified urban public transportation, and electric buses in our cities are now everywhere. The Ministry of Communications has issued a policy that by 2020, all new vehicles in the national transportation system will be new energy electric vehicles; on the "line", China's electrified high-speed rail will lead the world; on the "surface", it will be our electric bicycles and electric motorcycles. There are about 250 million vehicles, which is also a Chinese miracle.

We look at the problem in such a transportation system. China ’s cars are mainly used in cities. The distance of three to five hundred kilometers is very convenient for our high-speed rail. We “face” and then short-distance, electric bicycles, personal transportation The field is also very convenient. Therefore, our development of electric cars has a unique advantage in the world. This is the main reason why we use pure electric vehicles as a breakthrough in the industrialization of new energy vehicles. Of course, we are not talking about only pure electric vehicles, but we should use pure electric vehicles as a breakthrough point to promote the all-round development of various new energy vehicles.

4F breaks through the bottleneck of renewable energy development

The General Secretary proposed to realize a revolution in energy production and consumption. The core task in this revolution is to transform renewable energy.

According to the results of new energy research by the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, if we want to achieve the energy revolution and achieve carbon balance by 2050, we must vigorously develop wind power and photovoltaics. Among them, by 2035, our photovoltaic power will be developed from 180 million kilowatts to 2 billion kilowatts, the proportion of coal power will be reduced from 69% to 31%, and wind power and photovoltaic renewable energy will be increased to 63%, so this Is a big task. From a cost perspective, photovoltaic and wind power can already be developed on a large scale. In particular, the price of photovoltaic grid-connected electricity has been reduced to 0.2 yuan, which is already lower than the price of coal power. There is no problem in terms of technical feasibility. But the biggest bottleneck of renewable energy power generation is that its fluctuating load is difficult to balance, and energy must be stored. Energy storage technology has become a bottleneck in the development of new and renewable energy.

The combination of hydrogen and energy storage batteries can solve our storage problem of renewable energy.

Two major energy storage technologies. One is the lithium-ion battery, which is the best way for distributed, small-scale, short-cycle energy storage. It has the highest efficiency, the lowest cost, and the largest installed scale now, and it has huge development potential. In the future, it will reach the scale of trillion watt-hours, that is, a scale with an annual output of one billion kilowatt-hours, including energy storage, including electric vehicles. The other is that China's renewable energy has a feature. Our northwestern region has a vast area for us to produce photovoltaic renewable energy. But these photovoltaics are centralized, large-scale, long-term storage, and long-distance transportation. At this time we need to turn it into hydrogen for long-term storage. With this technology, we can drive the revolution in renewable energy.