Tesla's Localization What Kind Of Cake Did You Move?

- Nov 13, 2019-

The wave of Tesla and the wave of development of Tesla's supply chain are not isolated cases. Behind the acceleration of automobile electrification, squeezed fuel vehicles, China with absolute market and first-mover advantage is nurturing global competitiveness. High-end electric supply chain.

Once invincible, today is still the king of the past 2018, the global electric car market has achieved a major outbreak. In the context of the stable price of the subsidy policy and the continuous increase in the mileage/configuration of the model, the Chinese market sold 1.02 million units a year, a significant increase of 83% year-on-year. In the context of the continuous climbing of Tesla Model3 capacity, the US market achieved sales of 360,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 80%. Europe has also achieved sales of 390,000 units, driven by the continued electrification of Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, with a year-on-year increase of 29%. At the same time, we can see that Tesla Model3 is unique. In the overseas market where Tesla Model3 has been sold, the M3 has the highest monthly sales of 25,000 units, far exceeding the best level of the new energy models of the old generation of traditional cars such as Nissan Leaf and BMW i3. More than Lexus RX (110,000 in 18 years), BMW 3 Series and 4 Series (80,000 in 18 years), Mercedes-Benz GLC (70,000 in 18 years) became the highest-selling luxury car. However, both China and the world, passenger car consumption has entered a period of slow growth. In the case of limited supply, the strong rise of new energy vehicles will seriously squeeze the traditional fuel vehicle market. We expect China's new energy passenger car sales to reach 11.14 million in 2025, 1902% in 2017-2025, and 45% CAGR in 8 years. Assuming passenger car (fuel + new energy) 8 years CAGR is 2%, then 2025 Annual fuel vehicle sales will drop 26% to 17.09 million units, which is less than 3/4 of 2017. 2017 is the historical peak of fuel vehicle sales. The same is true of the world. In other words, in the next 5-10 years, electric vehicles will usher in the blue ocean, while fuel vehicles will have peaked. The first ten years of loneliness, the last ten years of noisy, the only constant is to lead. Tesla was established in 2003. Since its first pure electric car Roadster was released in 2006 and it has been on the cover of Time, it has launched ModelS, ModelX, Model3 and ModelY. It has continued to attract the automotive and technology circles for 16 years. The consumer market is widely concerned, and it is also known as the apple of the automotive industry. Tesla's wide-ranging focus stems from the fact that it is the forerunner of smart electric vehicles, and on the other hand, it is clearly designed to revolutionize the automotive industry's design and engineering ideas, and to revolutionize the automotive industry for decades. Electric cars are pushed to the general public. In order to achieve the goal, Musk took over Tesla and developed a three-step strategy: 1) The first step, small-scale production of sports cars: to verify the technical feasibility, this step corresponds to the Roadster supercar that was released in 2006 and delivered in 2008; 2) The second step is to enter the mid-to-high-end market: gradually realize the business rolling and accumulating the brand effect through the luxury models with strong performance but lower price. This step corresponds to the release of ModelS released in 2008 and 2012, and released in 2012, 2015. ModelX delivered; 3) The third step is to enter the low-end market to achieve economies of scale: to produce cost-effective electric vehicles for the masses. This step corresponds to the Model3 released in 2016, delivered in 2017, and released in 2019, 2020. Delivery of ModelY. In the process, the entire automotive industry was also taken to the intersection of change. Tesla's topicality for more than ten years is inseparable from his innovation and bragging. Behind it is Tesla's idea of how to make R&D and manufacture intelligent electric vehicles. It has the advantages of being completely ahead of other car companies, such as: 1) Battery modules that are significantly lighter, cheaper, and have higher energy storage: Although Tesla battery supply is still from external suppliers, through unique engineering The design bypasses the industry's past standard specifications to integrate and streamline battery management module-related power electronics to achieve higher performance and better cost. When the industry battery cost is still $120/kWh, Model3 It is close to $100. 2) New electronic and electrical architecture: In the field of non-security, internal design research, reduce and reduce weight through integration and simplification, get rid of the constraints of suppliers, in terms of hardware design, also based on virtualization from the beginning System design to achieve the integrity of the entire architecture, so that it can step into the VehicleComputer level in the ModelS era (Bosch's EEA evolution tree); this is also true in intelligent driving, Tesla significantly reduced the vehicle ECU Quantity, which reduces network complexity and makes it possible to use more advanced software. This unique advantage guarantees that Tesla's brand premium in the future is still standing. Tesla localization, who moved the cake? In 2018, Tesla's most eye-catching is that the domestic issue was finally finalized. Since the official registration of Tesla Shanghai in May 2018, the project has been completed and the construction of the factory has progressed rapidly. In July of that year, Tesla officially signed an investment agreement with the local government of Shanghai, and obtained a land transfer contract in October. The factory was laid in January 2019. As of now, the company and the local government are expected to complete the construction of the assembly shop in May and start production at the end of the year. . Tesla is the largest foreign investment in manufacturing in Shanghai. It is estimated that the total investment of the project is 50 billion yuan, corresponding to the annual production capacity of 500,000 pure electric vehicles. The first phase of investment is 16 billion yuan, achieving 250,000 assembly capacity. Production models include the Model3, which is currently on sale, and the ModelY, which was released in March. From the actual progress of Model3 US capacity climbing, the final capacity is about 7 months later than its earliest planning. Since the Model3 has become a production model and the production capacity has reached 7,000 vehicles/week, most of the problems in the climbing process have been solved. In addition, China's construction and production efficiency are higher than the US, we expect the Chinese factory to start mass production on time. It is estimated that the production capacity at the end of 2Q20 is expected to reach 1,250 vehicles/week. The production capacity at the end of 4Q20 is expected to reach 6,000 vehicles/week, and the annual production and sales will reach 90,000. How much money Model3 sells in China has always been one of the most concerned issues for everyone. On February 28, Musk announced the official launch of the basic model 3, which is priced at $35,000 and $37,000, and will be available in Asian markets including China within 6-8 months. At present, the entry version of Model3 is priced at 35,000 yuan overseas, and the Plus version is 37,000 yuan. According to 15% tariff, 13% value added tax, and other expenses of 20,000 yuan, the corresponding import guide price is 330,000 yuan and 350,000 yuan. However, at present, the mainstream models of domestic new energy vehicles are concentrated below 200,000 yuan, and the models that sell more than 200,000 yuan and have sold over 1,000 vehicles/month are only a few models such as BYD Tang and Weilai ES8. The basics of more than 300,000 yuan are only available. ES8 and BMW 5 Series PHEV. Therefore, the mission of importing M3 is still to develop the market rather than compete. However, due to the unique design of Tesla and the localization, the cost of Model3 will be estimated to drop very rapidly in the future. Take the Tesla Model 380.5kWh model as an example. The estimated cost in 2018 is about 38,000 US dollars, of which 28% are batteries and Pack, 7% electrical system, 37% are other parts, and 8% is production cost. 21% are other costs. In the next five years, driven by factors such as declining battery costs, annual decline in various components, diluting economies of scale, and localization, we expect its cost to be around US$27,000 by 2023, a 30% drop: Cell: Mainly relying on battery reduction Volume and cost prices continued to decline, down 43% in 5 years; Pack: mainly relying on diluted production and sales costs, down 33% in 5 years; electrical systems, other parts: mainly rely on localization to reduce taxes, freight, and annual decline, 5 years down 26%; production and other costs: mainly rely on localization, fixed costs diluted, down 26% in 5 years. According to estimates, the price of the entry version of the domestic Model3 will fall below 300,000 yuan in 2020, at around 260,000 yuan (without considering subsidies and tariffs), and further look into the future. The cost will continue to decline with the next three years. 40,000 yuan of downward adjustment space. From this point of view, Model3 will form a more obvious competition for other domestically produced mid- to high-end new energy vehicles, and will compete with the typical fuel vehicles Audi A4L, BMW 3 Series and Mercedes-Benz C. The success of the competition depends on whether Tesla's unique organizational structure and engineering design can continue to maintain its advantages, thereby supporting product strength and brand power. ModelY Relay, after the annual production of 1 million vehicles, Model3, Tesla has planned the fourth Volkswagen consumer model ModelY positioning entry SUV, which was officially released on March 14, 2019, and is scheduled to be mass-produced in the second half of 2020. It is planned that by the end of 2020, the global (US + China) weekly production capacity will reach 9000. The same as the entry version, ModelY is SUV, Model3 is a sedan, the core parameters are relatively close, but the cruising range is 200-300 miles, slightly lower than the model 3 of the same version of the car, the price is slightly higher than the Model3, for the Tesla Volkswagen The production line of consumer models is a necessary supplement, and we expect total sales after stabilization to be slightly higher than Model3. In addition, it is worth noting that ModelY has further improved the design of the model compared to Model3, and the structure is more streamlined. For example, Musk said that the total length of the wire harness used by ModelY is only 100 meters, while the Model3 is 1,500 meters and the ModelS is 3,000 meters. Production complexity and performance optimization have been significantly improved. With the continued expansion of the Model3 in 2019, the mass production of the Chinese plant in 2020, and the production of the ModelY in 2021, we can expect the total sales volume of Tesla to reach 390,000, 500,000 and 900,000 vehicles in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively. The annual sales rate of 59%, 27%, and 82% is 54%. In 2021, the ModelS+X totals 80,000, the Model is 3.5 million, and the ModelY is 330,000. The Chinese factory contributes about 350,000. Car. According to this estimate, Tesla will sell more than 1 million units by 2022. When Tesla is 1 million vehicles, the global sales of new energy vehicles will also be close to 10 million units. The cost will be closer to that of fuel vehicles, and the market will usher in a new wave of accelerated penetration. Domestic industry chain supporting opportunities For China's auto and parts companies, Tesla has brought challenges and brought new opportunities. In particular, Model3 was made at the end of the year, and its new round of supplier selection has also begun. Judging from the conventions of automobile supporting, the average old supplier continues to be selected with a high probability. From the perspective of the matching conventions, the proportion of Chinese parts suppliers supplying domestic Tesla is also expected to increase. At present, Tesla's Chinese suppliers are mainly concentrated in metal structural parts, secondary management of thermal management, secondary suppliers of interior and exterior, and secondary suppliers of electronic and electrical. Most of these suppliers have excellent textures in their own subdivisions, and there is room for expansion of supporting products, such as horizontal expansion of product categories, or secondary level expansion. It is expected that with the localization of Tesla and the progress of the ModelY listing, these suppliers have a large potential for additional allocation. At the same time, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai high-quality parts manufacturers, especially those already supporting overseas car companies or joint venture car companies, are also expected to enter the Tesla supporting system in a new round of fixed-point, and the supporting Tesla will greatly assist these parts. The manufacturers further explored the high-end customers of new energy vehicles and better shared the electric dividend. The outbreak of China's electric vehicle high-end industrial chain is not only the Tesla industrial chain ushered in heavy volume, the high-end industrial chain of electric vehicles will also enter the long-term channel of rising volume and price. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, electric vehicles have added battery systems, electric drive systems, charging modules and other systems. The demand for lithium-cobalt resources has increased, and the cost ratios in the fields of thermal management, lightweight, and automotive electronics have increased to varying degrees. With the improvement of the quality of new energy vehicles, the quality and quantity of related parts (cycle matching) will continue to increase. With the rapid mass expansion of electric vehicles in the future, the high-end supply chain will usher in volume and price, and we will see a batch here. Excellent parts have grown and embarked on the international stage. Since its establishment 16 years ago, Tesla has continued to lead the automotive industry to the depth of electrification and intelligent transformation with its unique advantages. The localization started in 2018 has brought more competition to Chinese car companies, and has also given China a large number of outstanding new energy sources. Auto parts suppliers have brought a new round of matching opportunities. Here we should also see that the wave of Tesla and the wave of development of Tesla's supply chain are not isolated, behind the acceleration of automobile electrification, squeezed fuel vehicles, with absolute market and first-mover advantages. China is nurturing a globally competitive high-end electric supply chain.